Prediction for 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season updated…

The Tropical Meteorology Project from Colorado State University (CSU) has released their 3rd seasonal prediction for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Project leads, Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. William Grey, issued the update this morning and the outlook continues to foresee a below-average 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. This is the 31st year in which the CSU Team has made forecasts of the upcoming season’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity.

The latest update predicts that the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season will have less activity than normal. Two key factors considered for this update are the tropical Atlantic remaining cooler than normal and El Niño continues to develop. A below-average probability of United States and Caribbean having a major hurricane landfall is also predicted.

Specifically, the forecast estimates that 2014 will have:

10 – Named storms (Average is 12.0)

4 –  Hurricanes (Average is 6.5)

1 – Major (Category 3-4-5) Hurricane (Average is 2.0)

The probabilities for at least 1 Major Hurricane (Category 3-4-5) landfall on each of the following coastal areas is:

1) Entire U.S. coastline – 40% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast including Florida Peninsula – 22% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 23% (average for last century is 30%)

The probability for at least one major Hurricane (Category 3-4-5) tracking into the Caribbean

1) 32% (average for last century is 42%)

Remember, although we are expecting a below-average season it only takes 1 storm to make it a bad season for you. As Tropical Storm Arthur, our first storm of the season, brews off the east coast of Florida, we are all reminded that now is the time to complete your personal plans and finish all preparations in case you are affected.

No Comments

Post a Comment