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Atlantic Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 142338

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.


...Gale Warning Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front will move into the Gulf of Mexico by early Friday
morning. With this, northerly winds will rapidly increase to
fresh to near-gale force behind the front by sunrise Friday, then
will increase to minimal gale-force offshore of Mexico, mainly south
of 26N. Seas will build to 8-10 ft in the area with the highest
winds. These conditions are forecast to diminish by sunrise on
Saturday. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Strong high pressure will build north of the Caribbean by Friday
evening resulting in a tight pressure gradient in the south central
Caribbean where trades will increase to fresh to strong. The
gradient will continue to strengthen through the weekend and gale-
force winds are forecast to pulse northwest of the Colombian coast
Friday night, Saturday night, and Sunday night. Seas will build
to 8-11 ft in in this area. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough transitions to the ITCZ along the coast of
Africa near 07N13W and continues to 03N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 03N-09N between 20W-33W.



A surface ridge anchored by a 1018 mb high in the south central
Gulf near 23N88W dominates the eastern half of the basin with
broad moderate anticyclonic flow. Jet dynamics aloft are
supporting mid to upper level cloudiness across the northwest
Gulf, while clear skies prevail elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold
front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf by early Friday
morning, then reach from the Florida Big Bend area in the northeast
Gulf to near Tampico Mexico by Friday evening. The front will stall
from Tampa to the Bay of Campeche on Saturday before lifting back
to the northwest through Sun. Gale-force winds are forecast along
the coast of Mexico near Tampico from Friday night to Saturday.
See the Special Features section for further details.


A weakening stationary front reaches from eastern Cuba across the
northwest Caribbean along 17N. Ahead of the front, the remnants
of a former cold front are analyzed as a trough that extends from
17N79W to 12N81W. Scattered showers are noted along the front and
trough. Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate trades across
the basin. Winds are forecast to increase to 20-25 kt over the
south central Caribbean tonight, with gale conditions possible by
Saturday night and Sunday night as high pressure builds north of
the area.


Cloudiness prevail along the north coast of Haiti due to the
proximity of a stationary front over eastern Cuba. Isolated
showers are still possible mainly over higher terrain through this
evening. Then, moisture will diminish as the trough continues to
weaken and drift westward.


A frontal boundary was analyzed as a cold front from 31N73W to
29N76W. To the east, a weakening stationary front extends 31N53W
to 21N76W. Isolated showers are noted along this boundary. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge,
anchored by a 1032 mb centered near 37N29W. Another cold front
will move off the northeast Florida coast early on Friday, reach
from Bermuda to south Florida Saturday, then will stall and
gradually dissipate along 25N through early next week as high
pressure from the southeast United States builds eastward across
the area.

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