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Hurricane Irene reaches Category 3 status.

Aug 24, 2011

Tags:Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,Polar Vortex,Tropical,Tropics,Weather,Winter

As of 8am EDT this morning Irene has been upgraded to major hurricane status with 115 mph max sustained winds. This is a category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. As previous forecasts have stated this was expected, but this is also very bad news for the Bahamas as the storm rolls through the islands today.

In terms of US impacts and track the forecast has changed little overnight. The eastward trend in successive model runs has slowed with the main consensus still focused on the NC coast for either a close pass or direct landfall. Thereafter the storm may actually impact the Northeast. At this point residents along most of the Eastern Seaboard should pay close attention to the progress of Irene. One interesting note is a key upper level feature that may influence the storm track will only be sampled in reality for the first time today. This will be important in terms of forecast confidence once model guidance takes that into account.

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Hurricane Irene weakens slightly but likely only temporary

Aug 23, 2011

Tags:Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,Polar Vortex,Tropical,Tropics,Weather,Winter

As of 5pm EDT Hurricane Irene was found to have 90 mph max sustained winds as opposed to the earlier 100 mph. This is the result of Hurricane Hunter Aircraft observations. One wonders if a close pass to Hispaniola was a factor in this or earlier wind shear from the southwest. Either way it is likely the storm will re-gain its strength and become a major hurricane in the next couple of days.

In terms of the forecast track things have shifted slightly east once again. It still looks like a serious impact on NC’s eastern shore but I would also pay close attention farther up the coast (as far as Southern New England). Stay tuned.

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