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 Archive | October

10/28: Morning Tropical Update

Oct 28, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,CSU,Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

Tropical Storm Rina continues to linger near the Yucatan Peninsula this morning with 45 mph max sustained winds (as of 7am CDT). This system’s primary threat will be heavy rainfall to the Yucatan and Cozumel as it slowly meanders near land. The storm will eventually dissipate as it turns back southward.

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Rina weakens to a tropical storm

Oct 27, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,CSU,Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

As of 11am on 10/27 Rina has weakened to a tropical storm as expected. Additional weakening is forecast as strong wind shear impacts the circulation. Regardless of strength heavy rainfall will be an issue on the Yucatan Peninsula as the storm rakes the coast. Additionally the system may loop back southward prolonging those chances, resulting in flooding of some areas.

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10/27: Morning Tropical Update

Oct 27, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,CSU,Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

Rina continues just off the Yucatan Peninsula but has weakened substantially as compared to yesterday at this time (8am EDT). Rina is a minimal hurricane with 75 mph max sustained winds. Additional weakening is now forecast with a hostile environment expected to impact the storm. None the less heavy rainfall and some strong winds are expected in the Yucatan through tomorrow.

Elsewhere a disturbance in the Western Caribbean Sea is not likely to develop at this time. This disturbance has a near 0% chance of development within 48 hours.

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Rina found to be much weaker this afternoon

Oct 26, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,CSU,Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

The NHC issued a special advisory on Hurricane Rina at 12:30pm CDT. They found the storm to be much weaker than this morning when it was nearing Category 3 strength. Winds have been downgraded to category 1 status at 85 mph max sustained. As a result the storm is no longer anticipated to be a major hurricane at landfall.

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10/26 Morning Tropical Update: Rina just below category 3 strength

Oct 26, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,CSU,Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

As of this morning the situation in the tropics remains relatively unchanged. Rina remains a category 2 hurricane on a path for the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. Max sustained winds are at 110 mph and this system is expected to reach category 3 status later today (major hurricane). Conditions will likely begin deteriorating today in some locations and direct impacts are expected through Friday. In the long term interests in Cuba and FL still need to monitor this system.

Meanwhile a disturbance remains in the Caribbean Sea, but is much less likely to develop compared to this time yesterday. This system was formerly known as Invest 97L but has since lost that status.

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10/25 Morning Tropical Update: Rina a category 2

Oct 25, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,CSU,Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

Rina continues to be the main story in the tropics. This system rapidly became a hurricane yesterday and is now at category 2 status with 100 mph max sustained winds. This system may intensify further to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) over the next couple of days. All indications are this storm will impact much of the Eastern Yucatan in MX beginning on Thursday morning. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and South FL should monitor the progress of Rina just in case, as there is considerable spread in long term forecasts.

Elsewhere in the tropics Invest 97L continues in the South-Central Caribbean Sea. This disturbance is showing some better signs of development (30% chance within 48 hours), and conditions are becoming a little more favorable. This system will continue west-northwestward.

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2pm EDT 10/24: Rina rapidly intensifies into a hurricane

Oct 24, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,CSU,Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

Tropical Storm Rina has rapidly become Hurricane Rina as of 2pm today (10/24). Additional strengthening is expected and it is possible this system could become a major storm. This storm will likely impact the Yucatan by the end of the work week. Thereafter it may turn north and northeast. Interests in Cuba and Florida should also monitor Rina’s progress.

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10/24: Morning tropical update

Oct 24, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,CSU,Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

As of this morning Tropical Storm Rina is the main story, having developed from what once was Invest 96L. This system is a minimal tropical storm as of 8am but is expected to strengthen. The current track has Rina turning more westward, then northwestward once again, as it approaches the Yucatan at the end of the week. The storm may become a hurricane by Friday. Stay tuned!

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10/23 Morning Tropical Update

Oct 23, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,CSU,Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

As of this morning the main story continues to be the two Atlantic Invests with Invest 96L being the primary concern. Invest 96L is located offshore of the Nicaragua – Honduras border. Probability of development rose to 70% last night and is now at 60%. This is after NHC backed off to 50% on Saturday afternoon. It appears conditions are becoming more favorable once again. The other Invest (97L) is east of the Windward Islands and a not a major threat at this time.

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10/22: Morning Tropical Update

Oct 22, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,CSU,Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

As of this morning a pair of disturbances continues to be watched in the Atlantic. Only one is of any real concern, which is Invest 96L In the Southwestern Caribbean Sea. At this time it has a 60% chance of development within 48 hours. It should be noted that this is down from 70% yesterday as conditions have become less favorable aloft. This system is also relatively close to the Central American landmass.

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