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 Archive | September

9/30: Morning Tropical Update

Sep 30, 2011

Tags:Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropics,Weather,Winter

As of this morning on 9/30 Hurricane Ophelia intensified rapidly overnight and now features 105 mph max sustained winds. It is possible for this system to reach major hurricane status before weakening and eventually interacting with a trough along the Eastern Seaboard. Ophelia may bring tropical storm force winds to Bermuda on Saturday

Philippe was originally expected to turn north but has moved more in a west-northwest to northwesterly direction. It is still not expected to impact land however if this system holds in the long term it will need to be monitored for any changes to that prospect. In the meantime the storm remains at sea and is steady in strength.

In the Eastern Pacific Hilary continues to steadily weaken and is now a depression. This system will likely be a remnant low well west of Baja California in Mexico later today.

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9/29 5am: Morning Tropical Update

Sep 29, 2011

Tags:Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropics,Weather,Winter

Ophelia appears to be becoming better organized this morning (9/29)  as it moves north-northwestward. The storm should become a hurricane prior to 72 hours. Beyond that time the environment will become less favorable and then extra-tropical transition should occur as the system accelerates north-northeastward. Bermuda is not expected to experience any major impacts at this time.

Philippe and Hilary are progressing as forecast.  Hilary is weakening and now is a tropical storm in the East Pacific. This system is expected to become a remnant low on Friday. Philippe remains well out at sea in the Atlantic at this time.

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9/28: Morning Tropical Update

Sep 28, 2011

Tags:Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropics,Weather,Winter

Ophelia has gained strength as of the 11am advisory and now has max sustained winds of 50 mph. The expected track still takes the storm northward. Bermuda interests should closely monitor this system as it will make its closest approach to the island on Saturday. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane.

Meanwhile Philippe continues well out at sea in the Atlantic and is barely holding on to tropical storm strength. In the East Pacific Hilary is steadily weakening and this is expected to continue. It will likely not impact Baja California, MX.

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9/27 Quick evening tropical update

Sep 27, 2011

Tags:Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropics,Weather,Winter

This update is just to mention Ophelia has re-generated East-Northeast of the Lesser Antilles. It appears to be no threat to the Caribbean at this time as it is expected to move northward. Bermuda would be the most likely location to be impacted. If this occurs it would most likely be on Saturday. The storm may reach hurricane strength.

In addition to Ophelia all other systems are behaving at this time as anticipated.

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9/27 Tropical Update: Ophelia to be re-born, Philippe and Hilary no threat

Sep 27, 2011

Tags:Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropics,Weather,Winter

As of this afternoon (on 9/27) it appears after investigation by hurricane hunter aircraft advisories will be re-started on Ophelia. This will likely occur this evening at the 5pm advisory time. Meanwhile elsewhere in the Atlantic Philippe has weakened to some degree and is not a land threat.

In the East Pacific Hurricane Hilary continues as a category 3 hurricane but will likely gradually weaken. The storm will head northward but likely dissipate before reaching Baja California.

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9/26: Morning update on the tropics

Sep 26, 2011

Tags:Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropics,Weather,Winter

As of this morning Ophelia is no longer a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, but the remnants are being monitored for potential re-generation. At this time that possibility is low due to ample wind shear which helped weaken the storm in the first place.

Farther out in the Eastern Atlantic Tropical Storm Philippe is gaining some strength but remains no threat to land. It is turning north and will remain at sea for the duration of its “life”.

In the Pacfic Hilary is sill a strong hurricane at Category 3 strength with 120 mph max sustained winds. These should slowly decrease however as conditions become less favorable for maintaining a major storm. The eventual turn north and impact on Baja California remains somewhat uncertain.

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9/24 5pm Evening Update: TD Seventeen becomes Philippe. Disturbance off Florida

Sep 24, 2011

Tags:Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropics,Weather,Winter

Tropical Storm Philippe has formed in the Eastern Atlantic. It was Tropical Depression Seventeen but has strengthened to tropical storm strength. Meanwhile a disturbance is being monitored off the FL Coast and may become a tropical cyclone in the next day or two. If it does short fuse watches/warnings may be needed. Interests from FL to NC should monitor this possibility. Finally Ophelia is behaving as forecast and Hilary is as well, in the East Pacific.

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9/24 morning update: Ophelia maintains strength, A new depression forms, Hilary still category 4

Sep 24, 2011

Tags:Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropics,Weather,Winter

As of this morning on 9/24 Ophelia is hanging on despite ample wind shear to 50 mph max sustained winds. Gradual weakning is expected as the storm moves northwest and steers clear of the Caribbean.

In the far Eastern Atlantic Tropical Depression 17 has developed and may become a tropical storm. With that said however, it is likely to turn northward and remain well out at sea. There is no threat to land at this time.

In the East Pacific Hilary is still category 4 storm with 140 mph max sustained winds. It has likely peaked in intensity and is now weakening slowly. Intensity will likely be governed by eyewall replacement cycles and internal dynamics in the short term. The storm will eventually encounter cooler waters and less favorable conditions but will likely remain a major storm over the next 72 hours. While it is staying off shore for now it will eventually turn northward. When this turn occurs will be key in determining any potential impact to Baja California in MX. Right now there is considerable forecast uncertainty in regard to this.

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9/23 5pm EDT: Ophelia re-gains strength, Hilary still a powerful storm

Sep 23, 2011

Tags:Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropics,Weather,Winter

As of 5pm EDT Ophelia has re-gained some strength and now has 60 mph max sustained winds once again. New convection has fired closer to its center suggesting a brief reduction in wind shear. This is likely the reason for the increase in intensity. The storm will likely still miss the Caribbean to the Northeast and weaken once again in the long term.

In the East Pacific Hilary is holding as a powerful 145 mph hurricane. These max sustained winds make the system a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. If this were making landfall we would be discussion devastation but thankfully it continues away from the Mexican Coast and fringe impacts are diminishing there. Hilary may increase a bit more in strength, but overall changes will be governed by eyewall replacement cycles and internal dynamics in the short term.

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9/22 11pm EDT: Ophelia weakens as Hilary becomes a major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific

Sep 22, 2011

Tags:Dr. Grey,Dr. Klotzbach,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Outlook,Hurricane Prediction,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,HUrricane Season Update,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Polar Vortex,Summer Cool Down,Tropical,Tropics,Weather,Winter

Ophelia is now weakening as expected with winds now down to 50 mph. Wind shear is doing a number on the storm. Assuming it survives as a tropical cyclone it looks more likely to miss impacting the Caribbean. It appears that it will likely pass northeast of the islands this weekend.

In the East Pacific Hilary has become a major hurricane with max sustained winds of 135 mph. This is category 4 and would be devastating if it made direct landfall at that strength. Thankfully it is paralleling the Mexican coast at this time. Along that coast in the warned areas tropical storm force winds have occurred and are expected over the next day.

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